> Carol, there's no doubt that low-cost displays will be the > norm within a decade. If Virtual Vision can cling to life > their technology could yield the sub > $100- (in high volume) SVGA full-color headset within 3 > years. I disagree. The volumes will not support this price point. SVGA systems will approach $500 in the next 18 months, but only with LCoS based systems. Currently, OLED based systems have an issue with contrast ratio. The images look a bit washed out. Panel life is also a large factor. Unless solved in the production models, these will hinder its adoption greatly. > Micro Emmissive Displays and others are also > commerciallizing OLED micro-displays. As the technology is > made available, companies like Micro Optical will no doubt > take advantage of the increased performance and decreased > power of OLEDs to bring us amazing technology at low prices. > And who knows what kind of miniaturization MicroVision will > be able to perform by the time that the Nomad IV comes out > (the second generation color display)? The Nomad has a new LOW price. Check it out at http://www.tekgear.com/product.cfm?sku=0112 > With the advantages of > MEMs and further electronics advances they may have a $100- > color display smaller than your thumb within 5 years .... > > Its hard to predict what technology we'll be using 5 years > from now, but we can be sure that HMDs will be: > - smaller > - lighter > - lower power > - higher resolution > - more flexible in operating modes > - rugged > - etc. > But the big factor will be lower-priced, which will finally > enable the mainstream market for wearables. At least, that's > my thoughts. Currently there are many hurdles to overcome before wearables will get into the marketplace, HMD resolution and price is one of the easiest ones to clear. Human interface issues: new mice and keyboards have to be developed that will allow a mobile user to use the Windows interface - Yes Windows. Face it, it is the interface of choice for the business community right now. To deny it will deny acceptance in the business and consumer markets. Currently, wearable computer core prices are way to high for the mainstream market. When you can buy a 2.2GHz P4 laptop with a 50GB HD and 15" LCD for $1,350 - with an integrated battery solution, keyboard and mouse, it sure makes EVERY current wearable solution look extremely expensive based on price:performance. Having said that, we sell many wearable solutions to industrial customers because the laptop paradigm or Palm paradigm just doesn't work in their environments. Currently this is a niche technology with very specific vertical markets. This is a good thing though. It should keep our industry focused on developing for markets that are already bearing fruit and not chasing markets that won't pay the costs of innovation - like what happened in the VR industry. > Any other insights into the future of HMDs? As to the future of HMDs - I predict more of the same. The M1, a Kopin 320M based monocular, was released in 1997. Since then the product has been enjoying a steadily growing customer base, moving from the individual purchaser to bulk orders. In 2003 alone, more M1 based products will be shipped than in the previous 5 years combined - all hooked up to wearable computing devices. The market is alive and growing for the QVGA HMDs. VGA HMDs really never took off as the resolution was quickly surpassed by the SVGA LCoS technology. I hope MicroOptical can find a niche for the SV-3 with its limited color depth. If they do, it may stimulate Kopin to bring their VGA panel out of low volume prototype quantities, settle on a design and go into full scale production. This will bring about a drive ASIC and support for a full 24 bit color palette while retaining low power consumption and low price. SVGA LCoS is really the only high resolution technology worth betting on right now as it is readily available and easy to integrate into a product. The Spectre (http://www.tekgear.com/product.cfm?sku=0066) is a great example of how quickly a LCoS product can be brought to market. OLEDs are still quite new and the major push by Kodak will be in the 2.5" and greater panel sizes which is a bit large for an HMD in this day. I should also note that HMDs make up a small portion of typical wearable computer sales. Hand held panels make up a majority of the sales, with audio only systems coming in second. It is hard to get people to put stuff on their head when there are less invasive output alternatives available. HMDs will continue to get better and better. We will always move forward with nice small, manageable steps as no one company has the enormous capitalization behind them that is required to bring the market along in one giant leap. Maybe if we all got together and.... -Tony -- Subscription/unsubscription/info requests: send e-mail with subject of "subscribe", "unsubscribe", or "info" toWear-Hard Mailing List Archive (searchable): http://wearables.blu.org Please, *PLEASE* don't subscribe through a forward/expander/false domain
From Wear-Hard Mailing list Archive (WH)
Maintained by R. Paul McCarty
Archive created with babymail