(this message got lost last week:) Tony, excellent review, and I'm *very* pleased with the new pricing on the Nomad! I agree with most of your points, but I'd like to nit-pick on the pricing of displays. I have to be careful what I say due to NDAs with the core technology manufacturers, but I know that sub-$500 SVGA is a reality now if someone cuts a check for the right volumes, and that in time (& volume) you will see SVGA HMDs hit $100, just like we have 5.7" color LCDs with touch-screens under $100- now (at 10k units a month). And those LCDs have a lot more material in them than the new HMDs we'll be seeing in the near future. But by high volume, I'm talking the kind that Nintendo or MS's X-Box could generate (over 100k per month), and I'm also talking about a few years down the road. But its coming. RE Kodak pushing 2.5" and up OLEDs: There's a good reason -- eMagin corp holds the world-wide exclusive rights to Kodak's OLED technology for micro-display (HMD) applications (I believe that's the case). So not even Kodak can sell their own technology into that market, and I think Kodak's is the only OLED technology in production, although many other companies (particularly in Japan) have been working on it for several years. ? Does anyone know of other vendors of OLED technology other than Kodak and Cambridge Display Technology? Optrex joined the list of manufacturers that have licensed Kodak's OLED technology for "conventional" displays. Other licensees include Denso Corp.; Lite Array Inc.; Nippon Seiki Co. Ltd.; Opsys Ltd.; Pioneer Corp; Ritek Corp.; TDK Corp.; Teco Electric & Machinery Co. Ltd.; Rohm Co. Ltd.; and Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd., (Kodak's joint development partner). I know that OLEDs are used in cell-phones and high-end digital camcorders. (are there any in car audio yet?) Seiko had an OLED display printer a few years back, and they are going to be producing it in 2003 to mass produce OLED displays in 2004. Even Samsung, the world's largest producer of LCD panels, says that OLEDs will replace LCDs in a few years. Can you imagine the impact that will have on the cost of making OLED displays? And the reason they are after OLEDs is that its a cheaper technology to start with. BTW: in monochrome LCD displays, the cost of the glass typically accounts for 60% of the wholesale cost of the display, and the source for that glass used to be just one company in Japan: Osahi OLEDs break away from the supplier dependance issues of LCDs, plus offer much simpler manufacturing. LCD mono QVGA displays in 4" diagonal size (PDA form-factor) are $30- in low quantities. OLED displays will eventually be cheaper than LCDs. Going from a micro-display module to a full head-set (with speakers and microphone and plastics and wires and assembly) will add < US$10- to the cost of the finished product. At the time in the future that the OLED display module gets to US$50-, a headset based on that display is $60- to build, and at U$100- that's a 40% margin ... better than average for volume consumer items. There is no doubt that SVGA OLED headsets will get under U$100- in volume in a few years based on those numbers. In volume, we'll sell you a 150 to 200 MHz ARM-9 CPU powered computer with DiskOnChip, USB hosts, Linux, and Sun's J2ME/CDC with "Personal Profile" JAVA.AWT graphics for under US$100 each including SW royalties. That's another price-point that is considered impossible, but we're just a couple months away from offering it. We're already quoting these to companies in the US and Europe. And I truly think that price is the greatest barrier to mass deployment of wearables. You're correct about the interfaces, but they'll sort themselves out once there's a market, there's volume, and there is competition. Okay, that's enough BS for one day. We have product to ship. Night folks! Brian Tony Havelka wrote: > > > Carol, there's no doubt that low-cost displays will be the > > norm within a decade. If Virtual Vision can cling to life > > their technology could yield the sub > > $100- (in high volume) SVGA full-color headset within 3 > > years. > > I disagree. The volumes will not support this price point. SVGA > systems will approach $500 in the next 18 months, but only with LCoS > based systems. Currently, OLED based systems have an issue with > contrast ratio. The images look a bit washed out. Panel life is also a > large factor. Unless solved in the production models, these will hinder > its adoption greatly. > > > Micro Emmissive Displays and others are also > > commerciallizing OLED micro-displays. As the technology is > > made available, companies like Micro Optical will no doubt > > take advantage of the increased performance and decreased > > power of OLEDs to bring us amazing technology at low prices. > > And who knows what kind of miniaturization MicroVision will > > be able to perform by the time that the Nomad IV comes out > > (the second generation color display)? > > The Nomad has a new LOW price. Check it out at > http://www.tekgear.com/product.cfm?sku=0112 > > > With the advantages of > > MEMs and further electronics advances they may have a $100- > > color display smaller than your thumb within 5 years .... > > > > Its hard to predict what technology we'll be using 5 years > > from now, but we can be sure that HMDs will be: > > - smaller > > - lighter > > - lower power > > - higher resolution > > - more flexible in operating modes > > - rugged > > - etc. > > > But the big factor will be lower-priced, which will finally > > enable the mainstream market for wearables. At least, that's > > my thoughts. > > Currently there are many hurdles to overcome before wearables will get > into the marketplace, HMD resolution and price is one of the easiest > ones to clear. Human interface issues: new mice and keyboards have to > be developed that will allow a mobile user to use the Windows interface > - Yes Windows. Face it, it is the interface of choice for the business > community right now. To deny it will deny acceptance in the business and > consumer markets. > > Currently, wearable computer core prices are way to high for the > mainstream market. When you can buy a 2.2GHz P4 laptop with a 50GB HD > and 15" LCD for $1,350 - with an integrated battery solution, keyboard > and mouse, it sure makes EVERY current wearable solution look extremely > expensive based on price:performance. Having said that, we sell many > wearable solutions to industrial customers because the laptop paradigm > or Palm paradigm just doesn't work in their environments. Currently this > is a niche technology with very specific vertical markets. > > This is a good thing though. It should keep our industry focused on > developing for markets that are already bearing fruit and not chasing > markets that won't pay the costs of innovation - like what happened in > the VR industry. > > > Any other insights into the future of HMDs? > > As to the future of HMDs - I predict more of the same. > > The M1, a Kopin 320M based monocular, was released in 1997. Since then > the product has been enjoying a steadily growing customer base, moving > from the individual purchaser to bulk orders. In 2003 alone, more M1 > based products will be shipped than in the previous 5 years combined - > all hooked up to wearable computing devices. The market is alive and > growing for the QVGA HMDs. > > VGA HMDs really never took off as the resolution was quickly surpassed > by the SVGA LCoS technology. I hope MicroOptical can find a niche for > the SV-3 with its limited color depth. If they do, it may stimulate > Kopin to bring their VGA panel out of low volume prototype quantities, > settle on a design and go into full scale production. This will bring > about a drive ASIC and support for a full 24 bit color palette while > retaining low power consumption and low price. > > SVGA LCoS is really the only high resolution technology worth betting on > right now as it is readily available and easy to integrate into a > product. The Spectre (http://www.tekgear.com/product.cfm?sku=0066) is a > great example of how quickly a LCoS product can be brought to market. > OLEDs are still quite new and the major push by Kodak will be in the > 2.5" and greater panel sizes which is a bit large for an HMD in this > day. > > I should also note that HMDs make up a small portion of typical wearable > computer sales. Hand held panels make up a majority of the sales, with > audio only systems coming in second. It is hard to get people to put > stuff on their head when there are less invasive output alternatives > available. > > HMDs will continue to get better and better. We will always move > forward with nice small, manageable steps as no one company has the > enormous capitalization behind them that is required to bring the market > along in one giant leap. Maybe if we all got together and.... > > -Tony > -- Subscription/unsubscription/info requests: send e-mail with subject of "subscribe", "unsubscribe", or "info" toWear-Hard Mailing List Archive (searchable): http://wearables.blu.org Please, *PLEASE* don't subscribe through a forward/expander/false domain
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