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RE: Eye-Link Hack

From: "Tony Havelka" <>
Date: Wed, 3 Dec 2003 15:36:30 -0600

> I would like to find a headset that costs retail
> around 150 or so, I'm desperatly trying to figure out
> why the high cost of current ones on the market. I'm
> 100% positive that they can manufacture the head sets
> alot cheaper so the current models must have a pretty
> high margin. 

Check out this very simple pricing equation:

Amortized R&D and tooling costs + Cost of Goods + Overhead + Profit =
Price 

2 key areas to note:

1) Currently R&D and tooling costs are very high. Especially when
amortized over the relatively low volume of units being sold in the
marketplace.

2) COGS are high because the market cannot support the volumes required
(about 10k units/month) to get input pricing down.  

And no, it is not a "chicken or the egg" type scenario either.  HMDs are
making great inroads in certain market segments where barriers have been
overcome.  Pricing is not an issue in these markets because the
intrinsic value of using an HMD outweighs its current cost. It is the
customers in these markets that are driving HMD innovation today.
Unfortunately, the hacker / hobbyist community just doesn't do the kind
of volume to have any input on HMD innovations just yet.  If you keep
hacking old CRTs you are going to relegate yourself into following
technology innovation instead of influencing it.

> I believe that if they could start producing HMD's
> alot cheaper then the current going price, people
> would be going after them in a hurry, after all you
> could hook it into a laptop and save half the laptops
> battery by switching the laptops display off. Hence
> longer lasting computing. Not to mention what it could
> do for the limited screens of PDA's as well as thier
> battery life.

You are assuming a fairly normal market demand curve.  In fact, the
market's current demand curve is pretty inelastic.  This means that
quantity sold in the market really doesn't change that much by a change
in price - up or down.  Currently the market's demand is finite, the
product selection is limited and the consumers in the market are buying
because they need it, not because they want it. Price is really not the
issue.  At $3,500, we can't keep M2's in stock yet at $649 we still have
to convince people that the i-glasses SVGA is a great product and is
worth every cent. Go figure.

> I like building things my self to be honest, but to
> comeout with a mainstream product takes more then
> fiddling with old camcorder components. 
> 
> It's nice to hear someone else's input on the matter.
> I'm a systems analyst by trade and would love to put
> HMD's to more mainstream use. Though at current prices
> they are but a more then many will want to chew.

What about user resistance to wearing something on their head?   What
about alternative display devices?  What about advancement in battery or
fuel cell technology?  I really don't think it is a matter of price -
there are many other things "holding back" the adoption of HMDs into the
mainstream market.  That day will come - some day.  We are still in an
emerging phase - trying to figure out what works and what doesn't.
What's the hurry anyway?

-Tony

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