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Date: Tue, 16 Jun 1998 16:15:09 EDT
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sorry #3 if this is already posted on the list!
but in case the problem is not with the 'aols' running my "server" here, here
goes another post attempt to send to wear-hard, my first try this am and ive
seen no posts.
Subj: WSJ 6/15
Date: 98-06-16 13:15:08 EDT
From: TWMet3
To: 
hi
just sat down again (no wearable yet!) to see;
my 1st 'sorry' sent this am @ 09:52:09 EDT, still hasn't appeared @haven.org,
and of course now, no paper copy is available on the stands!
so i took the "opportunity",, to sign on for 2 free trial weeks to experience
WSJ online access etc.
here's the 3 articles mentioned (not at all the full "Technology section", but
only my quick (comwearcom) selection yesterday am, seems you need to know
<correct> article titles to read copies that are searched 1 by 1 from online
wsj 6/15/98.
apologies for the band width 'here' & to wsj for copies posted, hey they may
get a subscription?
tris metcalfe
the over 2K file is of the 3 articles mentioned yesterday;
The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition -- June 15, 1998
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<HTML><PRE>Subj:=09WSJ 6/15
Date:=0998-06-16 13:15:08 EDT
From:=09TWMet3
To:=
hi
just sat down again (no wearable yet!) to see;
my 1st 'sorry' sent this am @ 09:52:09 EDT, still hasn't appeared @haven.=
org, and of course now, no paper copy is available on the stands!
so i took the "opportunity",, to sign on for 2 free trial weeks to experi=
ence WSJ online access etc.
here's the 3 articles mentioned (not at all the full "Technology section"=
, but only my quick (comwearcom) selection yesterday am, seems you need t=
o know <correct> article titles to read copies that are searched 1 by 1 f=
rom online wsj 6/15/98.
apologies for the band width 'here' & to wsj for copies posted, hey they =
may get a subscription?
tris metcalfe
The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition -- June 15, 1998
<Picture><Picture: The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition><Picture>
<Picture: [Section Navigation]><Picture>Table of Contents =A0 Related Sit=
es: Barron's Online SmartMoney Interactive Careers.wsj.com Business Direc=
tory Publications Library wsj.com Radio
Hear top news of the hour with RealPlayer 5.0
Search/Archives: Search Briefing Books Quotes Past Editions Journal Links=
Special Reports =A0 Resources: Help New Features Your Account Contact Us=
Glossary =A0 Advertising: Advertisers E-Mart
<Picture: refine your search>The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition =
-- June 15, 1998
"On the Drawing Board"
A Look at Some of the Latest Gizmos
Being Readied for Market.
By KARA SWISHER
NOT SO LONG ago, an ice maker in the refrigerator door seemed like a pret=
ty cool gadget.
Now, a Japanese start-up called V Sync Technology has declared that it wi=
ll begin selling an "Internet refrigerator" in that country by late 1999.=
It sports a full-size, liquid-crystal-display screen in the door that ca=
n be activated by touch or even with spoken commands using IBM Japan Ltd.=
's ViaVoice voice-recognition software.
The user can access the Internet through the desktop personal computer pe=
rched atop the refrigerator. It sports a 333-megahertz Pentium II process=
or, 128 megabytes of memory, a 3.2-gigabyte hard drive, a Windows 95 oper=
ating system, a Netscape Navigator 4.0 browser, and even a radio and tele=
vision tuner. Total cost, say its creators, would put it at about $770 mo=
re than an average refrigerator.
That could mean that when you go to grab a cold bottle of beer, you could=
also look up all the Web sites devoted to microbreweries. The question, =
however, is: Would you want to?
That same query comes up often these days, as companies affix the Interne=
t come-on to just about any product they can. The World Wide Web beckons =
these days from products ranging from cellular phones to big-screen TVs t=
o now even refrigerator doors -- no matter how absurd the idea sometimes =
seems.
"A lot of what is being developed is not making a lot of sense," says Nic=
k Donatiello, president of Odyssey Ventures Inc., a San Francisco market-=
research firm. "I think we are in a phase of 'Build it because we can,' r=
ather than because people want to buy it. Just because something is techn=
ically possible does not mean we should make it."
That doesn't seem to matter to companies that hope to hit it big with the=
latest consumer gadget and replicate the kind of success enjoyed by 3Com=
Corp.'s now-ubiquitous PalmPilot. The hand-held computer was a triumph f=
or its Santa Clara, Calif., parent after years of failed attempts by othe=
r companies to get the public to accept such devices.
In time-honored fashion, new gadgets continue to venture into the market,=
despite huge risks and often razor-thin profit margins. The current high=
-tech wave falls into several types of efforts:
Internet,
Internet
and Did We Mention the Internet?
Over the years, many companies have assumed that consumers want a device =
that does everything in one package. The problem is that there seem to be=
more and more things to do, and packing it all in is getting a bit messy=
. The Internet adds a whole new dimension to the problem.
A growing number of devices will allow a person access to the Internet al=
ong with being able to perform a lot of other tasks. Industry experts exp=
ect that many current gizmos, such as the PalmPilot, will eventually be a=
ble to both send and receive electronic mail and access Web pages. The fi=
rst generation of Internet cellular phones -- complete with little screen=
s and keyboards for Web surfing -- is already hitting the market.
But the size limitations make such efforts tough: Tiny keyboards are cumb=
ersome to use, and dinky screens make for eye strain. Which is why manufa=
cturers are working with companies that will allow better use of the Inte=
rnet from these small devices.
One such company is a Palo Alto, Calif., start-up called Siliscape Inc., =
which is making an attachment for cell phones and other devices that proj=
ects enlarged images from a tiny screen held about six to eight inches fr=
om the eye. Siliscape's technology, funded in part by Microsoft billionai=
re Paul Allen's investment group Vulcan Ventures Inc., is akin to a float=
ing hologram that tricks the users' eyes into believing they are looking =
directly at a big screen.
The hand-held device -- which is about a half-inch thick and will cost $1=
00 to $200 -- is expected to ship by this summer and be available for man=
y popular cell-phone brands by the end of the year.
"It creates a virtual image of the screen, working like a reverse microsc=
ope," says Siliscape spokesperson Willa Patch. "We're aiming to be able t=
o help cellular-phone makers and those who manufacture personal digital a=
ssistants make their devices better."
For Those Who Still Can't Program a VCR
While major cable, chip and software companies argue over the shape of di=
gital set-top boxes that will bring a variety of interactive programming =
into the home, a start-up in Santa Clara, Calif., called Teleworld Inc. i=
s concentrating on how to store it all once it gets there. Teleworld also=
plans to offer a service that will allow a consumer to record that mater=
ial based on his or her own preferences.
The device -- to be either a stand-alone box or integrated into a TV set =
or set-top box -- will be tested with a group of consumers later this yea=
r. It will initially hold about three hours of programming.
A user can select specific shows to be saved, or allow the Teleworld serv=
ice to seek out programming based on personal tastes, such as a yen for a=
nimal documentaries or political fare. Once you watch your programming, i=
t will be recorded over. TeleWorld officials won't yet discuss cost or av=
ailability of the device or the programming service.
"We are trying to simplify the increasingly complicated television experi=
ence for the consumer," says Teleworld Chief Executive Officer Michael Ra=
msay. "As choices increase, there is a need for devices and services that=
make it easier to enjoy all that will be offered."
Gizmos That Make Life Slightly Better
Some of the gadgets hitting the market are basically variations or improv=
ements on technology that already exists.
Mobil Corp., the Fairfax, Va., petroleum giant, has developed a device fo=
r car owners to streamline the gas-pumping process. Called Speedpass, it =
is based on technology now being successfully used at highway toll booths=
.
The two-inch black box, which sits on the rear window of a car, allows a =
customer to forgo swiping a credit or debit card at the pump, a wrinkle t=
hat had already virtually eliminated the need for a human employee at gas=
stations. When a car with a Speedpass box pulls up to a pump equipped wi=
th the correct technology, the box turns on the pump and then automatical=
ly charges the gas to the owner's credit card when he or she is done.
The Speedpass box -- or an alternative key-chain fob that can be dangled =
in front of the pump -- is free, but can be used only at Speedpass-equipp=
ed Mobil stations. The technology is available at 2,500 locations around =
the country, and 900 more are expected by this summer.
If you face a long, boring commute, consider Audible, a small hand-held r=
ecording device that can hold two hours of audio material downloaded from=
the maker's Web site through your PC. Using flash memory -- a chip that =
stores data even when the electrical current turns off -- rather than tap=
e, Audible can play back the material over a car stereo or through headph=
ones.
Privately held Audible Inc., the device's Wayne, N.J., maker, says it has=
signed deals with all the major recorded-book companies and a wide range=
of content providers. Available since last November, the service current=
ly offers about 12,000 hours of programming, plus links to other networks=
.
The Audible device itself costs $199, and users pay for each download. Fo=
r instance, the four-hour recorded version of the bestseller "Angela's As=
hes" by Frank McCourt costs $8.95. (For programs longer than Audible's tw=
o-hour capability, users can download the entire program onto their PC's =
hard drive and take smaller portions as needed.)
Audible also expects companies could benefit from the service, by posting=
corporate information on the Audible site that employees or customers co=
uld download from the Internet, giving them access to data when traveling=
or commuting.
Virtual Gadgets
Not all devices exist in the real world. Many are being created in the et=
her of the Internet as the global medium becomes a gadget itself.
WebCal Corp., based in New York, is now testing an Internet-based system =
that would allow users to maintain a calendar on the company's Web site a=
nd access and change it from any Internet-capable device. The service, wh=
ich started in May, charges corporate users a $2,500 one-time fee plus $5=
00 a year. Any individual can also get a calendar free of charge.
Rather than having to use dedicated software (such as the Lotus Organizer=
), a company can use WebCal for all its far-flung employees to coordinate=
meetings or inform them of critical industry events. In addition, with l=
inks on-line to hotel and car-rental companies, a person can make reserva=
tions that would be automatically recorded on the calendar and can also b=
e synched with existing devices like the PalmPilot.
Privacy is protected with passwords and encrypted information, say the ca=
lendar's creators. WebCal is also designing a variety of calendar templat=
es aimed at specific niches, such as those for college students or for so=
meone who might like to know about computer events.
"We want people to be able to have a virtual office," says WebCal's chief=
executive officer, Bruce Spector. "So wherever they are, they are connec=
ted."
Such a sentiment sounds good to those a bit dubious about more gadgets. "=
New consumer devices should aim to coordinate all the pieces and cut the =
complexity for consumers," says Odyssey's Mr. Donatiello. "Instead of jus=
t being a bunch of cool features, it all has to work together to create a=
benefit, or else why do we need it?"
-- Ms. Swisher is a staff reporter in The Wall Street Journal's San Franc=
isco bureau. Return to top of page | Format for printing Copyright =A9 19=
98 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
"Tokyo's Toys"
What Products Are Going to Be Hot In the U.S.
Tomorrow? Look at What's Hot In Japan Today.
By NORIHIKO SHIROUZU
TOKYO -- Talk about a smart new car. This one reads headlines and e-mail =
out loud, searches for your destination and navigates to it, maps coming =
freeway junctions on a dashboard display and warns of turns and lane chan=
ges ahead. A vehicle of the future? Not in Japan.
The talking, searching, navigating car is a reality thanks to Monet, a co=
mputerized navigation system recently introduced in Japan by Toyota Media=
Station Inc., a Toyota Motor Corp. affiliate. Monet uses digital cellula=
r-phone technology to access real-time traffic and other information from=
a central database -- something that wasn't available with earlier car-n=
avigation systems.
<Picture: Monet ad>
Monet hasn't had time to prove itself on the road, but it's part of a new=
generation of digital communications gadgets being rushed to the market =
in Japan. When it comes to introducing consumer electronics, the Japanese=
often still lead the world. And history shows that hit gizmos in Japan o=
ften become hits in the U.S. months -- or even years -- later. Examples: =
Nintendo Co. computer games, Sony Corp.'s Walkman, the CD player.
Of course, much of Japan's new technology is half-baked, overpriced and s=
ometimes downright bizarre, and never makes it even here. But it's worth =
looking at some of these new gadgets for a hint of what's to come.
And right now, Japan's electronics wizards are going into overdrive produ=
cing devices that communicate in new ways. A few of the latest:
Paldio Doraephone
Here's one more reason to buy a cell phone for the kids: a phone with a t=
racking device that helps parents keep tabs on their children.
<Picture: Doraemon phone>
Japan's cell-phone giant, NTT Personal, a subsidiary of Nippon Telegraph =
& Telephone Corp., began selling the device in February. A navigation-sys=
tem spinoff, the phone uses antennas -- placed about 500 feet apart in ma=
jor Japanese cities -- to pinpoint the phone's bearer. Parents call NTT's=
central computer, punch in the phone's registered number and hang up. Th=
e computer finds the phone and faxes back a map marking the bearer's loca=
tion to within 300 feet.
To make the phone more palatable to kids, NTT designed it to look like a =
popular Japanese cartoon character, a creature named Doraemon. The Doraep=
hone costs about $40, and the tracking service, called Imadoko (meaning "=
where are you now?"), costs as much as $3 a month and 30 cents a search.
"It's a great system to make sure your son or daughter doesn't wander int=
o a seedy section of the town, and that they're where they're supposed to=
be," says Mutsumi Takai, an NTT spokeswoman. "It buys parents peace of m=
ind." No studies exist yet on how kids feel about it.
Eye Trek
Video goggles aren't anything new, but until now they haven't been anythi=
ng to write home about. Sure, you could watch television or computer scre=
ens up close, but most models were heavy, ski-goggle-like affairs with fu=
zzy, eye-straining images.
Olympus Optical Co., the camera maker, has tried to leapfrog over its com=
petitors with its new lightweight (about a quarter pound) face-mounted vi=
deo display -- a device called the Eye Trek that feels a lot like a pair =
of sunglasses. The Eye Trek, which is to go on sale here on June 20 for a=
bout $500, weighs just one-fifth as much as Sony's conventional video gog=
gles, the Glasstron, which sells for $680 in Japan.
<Picture: EyeTrek>
Olympus says the Eye Trek set provides the illusion of watching a 62-inch=
TV screen from two meters away. That is the optimal distance, says Olymp=
us Spokesman Shinichiro Murakami. "A greater distance to the screen would=
make movements on the screen significantly less exciting," he says. The =
Eye Trek can be connected to a TV, VCR, video-game machine or DVD player.
The Eye Trek certainly is light on the face, and it nicely approximates a=
big-screen TV -- if you hold still. If you don't, watching a movie or pl=
aying a video game can be disorienting. Even a slight bobbing of the head=
makes the image jump before your eyes, rendering the system unfit for ex=
tended use without head support. And images on the Eye Trek's liquid-crys=
tal display are still a tad fuzzy. "That's the biggest task facing us," c=
oncedes Mr. Murakami. He says Olympus must solve the problem before intro=
ducing a similar product in foreign markets.
The technology that let Olympus shrink its face-mounted video display and=
significantly improve its images is what the company calls a "free-shape=
d optical prism," which combines a liquid-crystal display panel with a co=
mpact, lightweight prism requiring fewer components.
Olympus plans to begin selling Eye Trek in Japan in June for about $500, =
but has no plans to launch it in the U.S. anytime soon. One way for Ameri=
cans to get an early glimpse: Fly first-class to Tokyo. This month, for m=
any of its flights between Japan and the U.S., Japan Airlines began offer=
ing first-class passengers in-flight movies on Eye Trek.
Monet
The Monet system costs $2,300 plus a sign-up fee of $20 and an annual sub=
scription fee of $46. And you need a digital cellular phone.
But, oh, what it can do for you when you're in a strange town.
On a recent drive through Yokohama, a visitor asks Monet for the Esso gas=
station nearest the city's waterfront shopping center, using a few keyst=
rokes on Monet's touch-sensitive dashboard display. Monet dials up its ce=
ntral database in Tokyo and also taps into a satellite-based navigation s=
ystem. In about half a minute, it shows on the screen the Esso station's =
address, phone number and hours of business, and charts the shortest rout=
e to it on a map.
Drivers can use Monet to find just about any business in most any Japanes=
e town. Monet even suggests restaurants by cuisine, budget or rating, and=
then guides the driver to the one selected. It can even "talk" drivers t=
o their destination through a voice synthesizer. "Monet's got some great =
functions I can definitely use on the road," says Shinichiro Watanabe, a =
salesman who drives tens of thousands of miles a year and who recently te=
st-drove a car equipped with Monet.
Monet and similar systems being introduced in Japan by Nissan Motor Co. a=
nd Honda Motor Co. are the second generation of satellite-based navigatio=
n systems, which first appeared in Japan in the 1980s. Monet's headline f=
eature is its real-time information. That's an improvement over the previ=
ous system, which drew data from CD-ROMs and other memory devices that qu=
ickly became outdated. Monet's central database is periodically updated -=
- traffic information every five to 10 minutes -- when the Monet user is =
in areas serviced by cellular-phone carriers.
Of course, there are glitches. When the visitor in Yokohama asks for dire=
ctions to an Italian restaurant, Monet responds: "Turn right at the next =
intersection" -- directing the car onto a road that is closed for constru=
ction. (Monet apparently doesn't know about the city's interminable effor=
ts to refurbish its waterfront -- though Kazumasa Hata, a Monet marketing=
manager at Toyota Media Station, says Monet generally will be up-to-date=
on such obstacles.) And while Monet found that Esso station in 30 second=
s, it didn't get the station's hours right.
"For most people who rarely venture into unfamiliar towns," says Mr. Wata=
nabe, "Monet will likely end up like a juicer in the kitchen -- something=
you use once and quickly forget you even own it." Toyota Media Station, =
which has signed up about 2,000 drivers, says it has no plans to market a=
similar system in the U.S. But Mr. Hata says it's a possibility for the =
future, depending on the response of Japanese consumers.
Ruputer
The Japanese are always quick to go Americans one smaller. That's what Se=
iko Instruments Inc. has tried to do with the Ruputer, which it claims is=
the world's first wristwatch personal digital assistant--a sort of weara=
ble equivalent of the PalmPilot.
<Picture: Ruputer>
The Ruputer is a bit bulky and can't do e-mail. But it has a date book, a=
to-do list and other data-storage capabilities that, like the PalmPilot,=
can be backed up on a desktop personal computer using a docking station.=
The watch's back-lit liquid-crystal display, measuring about four-fifths=
of an inch by 11=DA5 inch, can show five lines of Japanese or Roman char=
acters. Its input method is a bit cumbersome: The Ruputer, weighing 2.4 o=
unces, lets the user write memos on a keyboard that appears on the touch-=
sensitive display.
The Ruputer, powered by a 16-bit microprocessor with 128 kilobytes of mai=
n memory, comes in two models: one with a 512-kilobyte flash memory for $=
290, and the other with a two-megabyte flash memory for $360. The Ruputer=
went on sale in Japan last week. A Seiko spokesman says the company will=
decide whether to market it in the U.S. after seeing how it fares in Jap=
an.
-- Mr. Shirouzu is a staff reporter in The Wall Street Journal's Tokyo bu=
reau. Return to top of page | Format for printing Copyright =A9 1998 Dow =
Jones & Company, Inc.
The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition -- June 15, 1998
"It Sounded So Good ..."
The History of Consumer Electronics
Is Littered With Failure.
By LEE GOMES
IT WAS THE SPRING of 1996, and Ron Perkes was convinced that a huge marke=
t in consumer electronics was about to take off -- with him sitting in th=
e catbird seat.
The San Rafael, Calif., entrepreneur had a product with a lofty name -- W=
orldVision -- and even loftier ambitions. By combining a high-quality, 29=
-inch monitor with an advanced personal computer, WorldVision would meld =
the television and PC into a single, living-room-friendly product. The id=
ea: Families could watch their favorite shows, then switch to the Web for=
some communal surfing.
A Few That Didn't Make It
<Picture: Go to They Didn't Make It>
Why do so many consumer products misfire so badly? For a number of reason=
s, say technology historians and industry analysts.
At $3,000 a pop, the systems from Mr. Perkes's NetTV Inc. were expensive =
by the standards of consumer electronics. But he had persuaded a number o=
f retail chains, including CompUSA Inc., to carry the product. It took ne=
arly $5 million to ready the unit for market, but by April 1996, it was b=
eing manufactured, salespeople had been trained and glitzy brochures prin=
ted up. Mr. Perkes waited for the phones to start ringing.
Instead of getting orders, however, NetTV got only questions. "People ask=
ed, 'Why exactly would I want this in my living room?' " Mr. Perkes says.
The product bombed.
"We miscalculated," recalls Mr. Perkes with a sigh. "It was very disheart=
ening."
In contemplating his unsuccessful foray into the world of consumer electr=
onics, Mr. Perkes can at least take solace in one fact: He has plenty of =
company.
Indeed, the battlefield of consumer electronics is strewn with casualties=
, from small entrepreneurs like Mr. Perkes to some of the world's biggest=
companies. Their failures -- some of which involved hundreds of millions=
of dollars -- span many decades, and have had a multitude of causes. But=
, taken together, they should provide a cautionary tale to companies hopp=
ing on the digital consumer-electronics bandwagon.
"We have 28 filing cabinets here in our offices, and 20 of them are dedic=
ated to consumer campaigns that failed," says Rick Doherty, an analyst wi=
th Envisioneering Group, a consumer-electronics research outfit in Seafor=
d, N.Y.
Digital Allure
The reason so many people have made so many attempts at the consumer-elec=
tronics world is obvious. There are few markets as pervasive, or as large=
: Sales of consumer-electronics hardware are estimated by trade groups at=
$80 billion a year. But much like the world of sports, where captains of=
industry snap up teams as trophies, the consumer marketplace seems to ha=
ve an allure that transcends simple economics.
"Consumer electronics touches so many people that we want to be associate=
d with it, even though profit margins are sometimes razor-thin," says Mr.=
Doherty. "People beam when they are involved in consumer electronics, an=
d that's why there are so many wannabes. Even before Bill Gates touched a=
computer keyboard, he listened to the radio."
The latest boom that some fear may be waiting to bust is the digital "con=
vergence" that Mr. Perkes hoped to exploit: the marriage of computers and=
television to get couch potatoes to sit up and pay rapt attention to a n=
ew breed of interactive media.
Like many other would-be consumer-electronics pioneers, Mr. Perkes had se=
t ambitious goals for his product: first-year sales of the WorldVision in=
the tens of thousands of units, with revenue nearing $30 million. In the=
end, he didn't come close. Shipments in the first 15 months barely reach=
ed 1,200 sets.
Mr. Perkes has a straightforward explanation for his failure: Rather than=
being synergistic with each other, PCs and TVs were more like oil and wa=
ter.
"When we finally retreat to the living room, we want something with a hig=
h entertainment value to entertain us," says Mr. Perkes. "But the Interne=
t wasn't enough to cause people to put a computer into their entertainmen=
t center. There just wasn't enough entertainment value to compel people i=
nto the proposition."
Other companies that brought out products comparable to NetTV's are also =
finding slow going toward the digital living room. Gateway 2000 Inc., the=
personal-computer supplier, introduced its Destination system for the li=
ving room at around the same time NetTV came out. The product, which carr=
ied a price tag of up to $5,000, included a cutting-edge PC and a large, =
high-quality monitor.
Bill Graber, marketing manager for the product, won't disclose sales figu=
res, though he says the company is satisfied with its results so far. But=
he also makes it clear that the road to the converged living room is a b=
umpy one.
"The original concept is proving to be true -- the migration of computer =
technology into the entertainment and consumer market is happening," he s=
ays. "But it's a slow-growth curve, and there are a lot of pieces that st=
ill need to be filled in."
Among those pieces, says Mr. Graber, is PC software that is both easier t=
o use and more reliable. "TVs always turn on, and they hardly ever fail,"=
he says. "But with computers, there still are a lot of those issues."
Analysts agree with Mr. Graber about the long haul to the converged livin=
g room. Consider one of the success stories of TV-Internet integration --=
Microsoft Corp.'s WebTV, which has 300,000 customers, more than quadrupl=
e the figure from a year earlier. The $200 set-top device provides TV wat=
chers access to the Internet and e-mail. While WebTV's growth rate is imp=
ressive, Mary Meeker, who follows the Internet for Morgan Stanley Dean Wi=
tter & Co. in New York, says the much harder test is still to come. Becau=
se of a reliable group of early adopters, she says, "there are a million =
people who will try anything. And that means that nothing matters until y=
ou get beyond the first million."
Getting those kinds of numbers will require, among other things, a better=
World Wide Web, which for many people could mean a long wait. Ron Rappap=
ort, an analyst with Zona Research, Redwood City, Calif., says mass-marke=
t-style entertainment applications won't be available on the Internet unt=
il high-speed, nonstop connections are available to far more American hom=
es than now have them.
Numerous technologies are now vying to provide those connections, from ca=
ble modems to digital service from phone companies. But Mr. Rappaport say=
s the uncertainties about each approach are such that he won't predict wh=
en any of them would be available in the majority of U.S. households.
Version 2.0
Of course, there's one big caveat to predictions of failure: The fact tha=
t a product flopped in an earlier incarnation doesn't mean it can't make =
it the second time around. For example, even with the Newton debacle in p=
eople's memories, 3Com Corp. had a huge hit with its pager-size PalmPilot=
by focusing on a smaller range of tasks and emphasizing how easily the u=
nit could share information with a PC.
And, despite the decades of broken promises involving videophones, there =
is now a burgeoning videophone scene on the Internet, thanks to cheaper h=
ardware -- a $200 camera and free software -- and a world-wide network on=
which to make "calls." Plus, the Internet offers something that was miss=
ing from earlier tries: the equivalent of a phone book that allows users =
to find similarly equipped people they can call.
That fact gives hope to people like Mr. Perkes, who is trying again with =
his WorldVision, albeit with a more modest business plan that targets the=
education market.
And, he thinks, there's still some hope for the home market, as well. He =
expects that the growing need to connect to a variety of devices and tele=
vision signals -- from digital television to digital videodisks to high-d=
efinition TV -- will fuel interest in the kind of all-purpose monitor and=
software he has been trying to sell.
And that's why, even after the past two years, he's able to say, "We have=
a very bright future ahead of us."
-- Mr. Gomes is a staff reporter in The Wall Street Journal's San Francis=
co bureau. Return to top of page | Format for printing</PRE></HTML>
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